How to save the Trump campaign — or: why the president will lose

There is no other way to put it: Donald J. Trumps re-election bid for president is in serious problems. There isn’t a single poll out there in which he isn’t trailing Joe Biden badly. Since his release from the hospital he is more unhinged than ever. But strangely without any effects. There are no big waves in the media or the social networks anymore. It’s like common background noise now. People suffering from tinnitus can learn to accept and live with it. It seems this finally happened to Trump. But the 74-year-old incumbent can still win. But not with his current strategy. He will lose — and the reason for his failure is himself.

Trump’s mayhem will not succeed

There are a tone of people claiming to understand Trump’s strategy. The sooner or later they are all proven wrong. So, I will restrain myself to the obvious: It’s mayhem. The president is all over the place. His positions on the stimulus talks changed within days from one extreme (stopping the negotiations) to the other (demanding more money than the Democrats). His war on mail-in-ballots continues — harsher in tone and actions (“poll army”) than ever before. His public statements are completely out of control. He described Kamela Harris as a “monster”, dropped the f-bomb on a radio show and screamed at his own cabinet — all within 72 hours. And the list could go on. But it is probably enough to say that “Fox News” out of all outlets had to play music to make him stop talking. Sean Hannity had to interrupt Trump several times to prevent him from saying completely mad things.

No one knows, if this is strategy, desperation or a side effect of Trump’s Covid 19-medication. But one thing is for sure: it will not succeed. Voters hate mayhem — almost all of them. Trump should know best: he was campaigning on this. His “LAW AND ORDER” tweets, his rantings about antifa and the radical left were exactly that: portraying him as the order and Biden as chaos. And it worked — he was gaining ground in the polls. This all changed since the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Everything what followed went wrong for him — politically and personally. Trump completely lost focus — willingly or not. But he did.

What Trump would need to do

If Trump wants to win, he needs to go the following steps:

1. Stop the mayhem. There shouldn’t be any unhinged rantings on TV anymore. The White House actually tried to limit his appearances to pre-taped clips. Trump wasn’t willing to go through with them and demanded real campaign events. He should reverse course.

2. Come clear with his illness. Trump’s statements about his infection hurt a lot of families of the victims. Everybody knew that his condition was severe. He shouldn’t talk like it was a little headache.

3. Fire some people. Trump’s personal numbers are underwater. And they will not come back before the election. But he can replace some of his unpopular staff with more respected persons. Bill Barr or Betsy DeVos are two examples. There are independent voters that actually have not a huge problem with Trump. But with these two (and others). They could be convinced to vote for the incumbent by good replacements. Latest news seems to indicate that Trumps follows this idea. He asked all his staff to hand in offers for resignation before the election.

4. Take the victory the Democrats are offering with the stimulus talks. The GOP will almost certainly lose the senate. But Trump could save himself, if he would accept the offer coming out Pelosi’s office.

5. Delay the confirmation of the new supreme court justice until after the election. Justify it with the current Covid outbreaks. The GOP senate will do it in the lame duck season. A president-elect Biden would be forced to position himself to the idea of court packing. Right now, he can dodge the question, because he can say it would distract from the confirmation.

6. Announce to accept the outcome of the election. Trump’s first term is mobilizing a lot of voters. Many have only one priority: get rid of him. Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the election lead to a movement to come out in numbers big enough that it’s not possible to challenge the result. Some would stay home, if they think they aren’t needed. There is still a pandemic after all.

But let’s be serious: Trump will not take all these steps, if any. He will maybe replace some people and sign a stimulus deal. The other steps are too much against his personality. This is why he will lose. He isn’t capable to do the rational thing to save himself anymore, if he doesn’t like to do it. Trump loses for the same reason he won in 2016 — because of the man he is.